Daily News

Pakistan’s agriculture has traditionally measured success in tons of wheat, rice, sugarcane and cotton, export earnings and cultivated acreage. But that approach is becoming increasingly outdated. For a country facing growing water stress, the more important question is not simply how much Pakistan can grow. It is how much water each crop consumes—and whether that water will still be available for farmers in the future. Agriculture remains heavily dependent on irrigation, while groundwater has become a critical buffer when canal supplies and rainfall fall short. The World Bank says groundwater provides more than half of Pakistan’s agricultural water and warns that over-abstraction, waterlogging and contamination are threatening this resource. ([World Bank][1]) For Pakistan, the future of farming may therefore depend on one principle: grow crops according to available water, not simply according to market demand. Pakistan’s Agricultural Crisis Is Also a Water Crisis Pakistan has one of the world’s largest irrigation systems, but water availability is becoming a serious constraint on agricultural growth. The problem is not that farmers are using water unnecessarily. Farmers need water to produce food and earn an income. The deeper problem is that agricultural incentives often fail to reflect the real scarcity value of water. A recent World Bank assessment notes that Pakistan’s water governance provides weak incentives for conservation, while crop-specific support and inadequate groundwater regulation can encourage water-intensive production and groundwater extraction. ([World Bank][2]) This creates a dangerous cycle: More irrigation → more production → greater groundwater pumping → declining water security → higher future farming costs. That is not a sustainable agricultural model. Groundwater Is Pakistan’s Hidden Agricultural Bank For millions of farmers, groundwater acts like an emergency savings account. When canal water is insufficient, a tubewell can provide the additional irrigation needed to protect a crop. Groundwater has therefore played a major role in expanding agricultural productivity and stabilizing farm production. But an aquifer is not an unlimited resource. The World Bank has warned that over-exploitation is already affecting parts of Pakistan’s irrigated agricultural landscape, while poor groundwater governance and limited data make sustainable management more difficult. ([World Bank][1]) This means Pakistan needs to start treating groundwater as natural capital, not as free water. Every agricultural policy should consider: These questions could fundamentally change Pakistan’s farming strategy. Solar Tubewells Are Not the Real Problem The rapid adoption of solar irrigation has created concern about groundwater depletion. But blaming solar pumps alone misses the larger issue. Farmers turned toward solar energy because electricity and diesel irrigation can be expensive and unreliable. Solar-powered tubewells can reduce operating costs and give farmers greater control over irrigation. The problem occurs when cheap pumping meets unrestricted groundwater extraction. The World Bank has similarly highlighted how improved access to groundwater can create a risk of over-extraction when water use is not properly monitored. ([World Bank Blogs][3]) Therefore, Pakistan should not simply ban solar pumps. Instead, policymakers should regulate how much water is pumped. That could include tubewell registration, groundwater monitoring, smart metering, aquifer-level extraction limits and incentives for water-efficient irrigation. Sugarcane Shows Why Crop Economics Matter Sugarcane illustrates the complicated relationship between agricultural profitability and water sustainability. The crop can provide attractive returns under suitable conditions, but it also requires substantial irrigation and occupies farmland for a relatively long growing period. When water-stressed regions continue expanding water-intensive crops, farmers may benefit in the short term while the wider economy carries the long-term environmental cost. The issue becomes even more important when agricultural commodities are exported. An export is not only a shipment of sugar, rice or cotton. It also represents the water, energy, fertilizer, land and labor used to produce that commodity. Pakistan therefore needs to understand its agricultural exports through the concept of virtual water—the water embedded in traded agricultural products. Rice Exports: Economic Success With a Water Question Rice demonstrates why export performance alone cannot define agricultural success. Pakistan experienced a major increase in rice exports during FY2023-24. Official Pakistan Bureau of Statistics data show that exports of non-basmati rice alone were worth about $3.06 billion, with shipments exceeding 5.25 million tonnes. Basmati rice exports added another $877 million. ([Pakistan Bureau of Statistics][4]) These figures represent an important source of foreign exchange. But there is another side to the story. If rice production expands in areas where groundwater is already under pressure, policymakers need to calculate the blue-water footprint behind those exports. In other words: How many cubic meters of scarce surface and groundwater are required to generate one dollar of agricultural export revenue? That metric could become far more useful than production volume alone. Rice can remain an important Pakistani crop. But its expansion should depend on local water availability, irrigation efficiency, crop productivity and groundwater conditions. Water Efficiency Alone Will Not Solve the Problem Pakistan has invested in technologies such as laser land leveling, drip irrigation, sprinklers and improved irrigation practices. These technologies can significantly improve farm-level water management. But there is an important catch. If a farmer saves water on one acre and then uses that saving to cultivate another acre of a thirsty crop, the farmer may become more efficient while the overall basin continues consuming the same amount—or more—water. This is known as the difference between field-level efficiency and basin-level water savings. Pakistan therefore needs to move beyond simply asking: How much water did the farmer save? The better question is: How much water did the entire watershed or aquifer actually save? That distinction is essential for sustainable irrigation management. Pakistan Needs Hydrological Crop Zoning The solution is not to label one crop universally “good” and another universally “bad.” Instead, Pakistan should adopt hydrological zoning. Different agricultural regions have different rainfall patterns, soil conditions, canal supplies, groundwater quality and recharge rates. Crop planning should reflect those differences. Southern Punjab Southern Punjab can strengthen crops that provide strong economic returns without putting excessive pressure on already stressed water resources. Cotton, oilseeds, pulses and carefully selected horticultural crops can play a larger role where local conditions support them. Central Punjab Areas